Colin Kaepernick to Start Over Alex Smith; Is Jim Harbaugh Making the Right Call?

     It appears that the San Francisco 49ers will be making a switch at quarterback for their game in New Orleans today. Though Alex Smith is ready to play, head coach Jim Harbaugh is very likely to "stick with the hot hand" by starting second year quarterback Colin Kaepernick.
     For the 49ers, they have a 7-2-1 record and have not shown many weaknesses's this year which begs the question whether their is a need to make a change. The answer is, there is no need to make a quarterback change. With Alex Smith under center the past two seasons, the 49ers are 20-6-1 including last years playoffs. Only three of the league's 40 starting quarterbacks the past two seasons, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Joe Flacco, have more wins during that time. You might wonder whether the 49ers simply win in spite of Smith, but after looking at his statistics from this season, it is clear that not only is Smith a vital part to the 49ers success, he is having one of the more productive seasons at quarterback in the league. His 69.8 total quarterback rating ranks eighth in the NFL ahead of others such as Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning and Matt Schaub. On top of that, Smith's Total QBR is over 20 points higher than what it was last year, an improvement from 21st to 8th. Not only has Smith been productive, he has improved a great deal coming off a season where he led the 49ers to a 13 win season, only one victory away from the Super Bowl. Though Colin Kaepernick looked terrific going up against a Chicago defense that is one of the best defenses in the NFL, Alex Smith has proven over enough of a sample size that he is productive enough to lead the 49ers to a Super Bowl this year.
    Even though Harbaugh's decision seems a little of knee jerk reaction, he may simply realize he has two good quarterbacks that he can utilize to keep opposing defenses off guard. Either way, starting Colin Kaepernick will not have a negative impact on the 49ers over the next few weeks. In their next four games, they face teams that rank 31st, 13th, 27th and 29th in passing defense. Whether Smith or Kaepernick is getting the majority of the reps, the 49ers will not have too much trouble moving the ball through the air in the next few games. In the mean time, Jim Harbaugh is not making the right or wrong call because on paper, it simply won't matter who is starting for San Francisco. However, it will be late in the season and in the playoffs when Harbaugh's decision will be crucial to the outcome of their season. San Francisco does not have the NFC West locked up by any means and a Week 16 matchup at Seattle, against the 3rd ranked passing defense in the NFL, will certainly test whoever is at quarterback for the 49ers. This is simply a prediction, but if Harbaugh has Kaepernick getting most of the snaps in playoff games, the 49ers will be turning to Alex Smith late in those games to resurrect the 49ers season.