Analyzing Stanley Cup Champions- Futures Bets

Analysis

• seeding doesn't really matter 
• 7/8 a top 4 seed 
• points don't really matter  
• all have + goal differential 
• all have penalty kill above 80% 
• usually have to be in top 10 in scoring, LA Kings were exception 
• if there is weak scoring, there has to be superb goaltending and vis versa 
• Combined Total should be below 32, risking it if it's not below 15 or so
• should have a goalie that ranks high in GAA 

Out of the Mix
Goal Differential 

Toronto, Detroit, Ottawa, Florida, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Washington, Carolina, New Jersey, New York Islanders, Minnesota, Dallas, Winnipeg, Nashville, Phoenix, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton

Combined Total Lower than 32 
Boston- 7 (5 and 2)
Tampa Bay- 22 (11 and 11)
Montreal- 28 (22 and 6)
Pittsburgh- 11 (4 and 7)
New York- 28 (18 and 10)
Columbus- 25 (7 and 18)
St. Louis- 5 (2 and 3)
Chicago- 14 (1 and 13)   *penalty kill lower than 80%
Colorado- 20 (6 and 14)
Anaheim- 11 (3 and 8)
San Jose- 13 (9 and 4)
Los Angeles- 30 (29 and 1)

Goalie High in GAA and Save Percentage
Ben Bishop- TB (3rd in GAA, 2nd in SV%)
Tuuka Rask- BOS (5th in GAA, 4th in SV%)
Jonathan Quick- LA (8th in GAA, 28th in SV%)
Marc-Andre Fleury- PIT (10th in GAA, 12th in SV%)
Jaroslav Halak- STL (11th in GAA, 23rd in SV%)
Carey Price- MON (12th in GAA, 8th in SV%)
Jonas Hiller- ANA (13th in GAA, 18th in SV%)
Corey Crawford- CHI (14th in GAA, 20th in SV%)
Anti Niemi- SJ (16th in GAA, 26th in SV%)
Henrik Lundqvist- NYR (17th in GAA, 15th in SV%)
Semyon Varlamov- COL (19th in GAA, 9th in SV%)
Sergei Bobrovsky- COL (23rd in GAA, 15th in SV%) 

Next Analysis: Regular Season Performance of Stanley Cup Champions Against Playoff Quarterfinalists, Semifinalists, Conference Finalists, and Conference Champions WithTheir Primary Goalie 

2012 LA
Quarterfinalists: 10-14  -3
Semifinalists: 4-2  +6
Conference Finalists: 4-2  +3
Conference Champions: 0-1  -1
Total: 18-19 +5

2011 BOS
Q: 8-9  +10
S: 6-1  +11
CF: 3-2  +5
CC: 1-0  +2
Total: 18-12  +28 

2013 Chicago Blackhawks

• *Lockout
• 1 seed, Best Record in NHL
• 2nd in scoring, 1st in goals against, 5th in shots taken, 4th in shots against, 2nd in save percentage, 30th in penalty minutes, 26th in penalty minutes against 
• Combined Total: 3 
• Goalies (R. Emery and C. Crawford) ranked 2nd and 3rd in GAA, both tied for 11th in shutouts, C.Crawford tied for 5th in save percentage  

   Playoffs

• 6th in scoring, 4th in goals against 
• +16 

2012 Los Angeles Kings

• 8 seed
• 95 points
• 40 wins, 34 ROW, 15 OTL
• 6-9 Shootout Record
• +15 Goal Differential 
• 194 gf, 179 ga
• 5-2-3 coming into playoffs in last ten
• 16.9 power play%, 87% penalty kill 
• 33-20-11 vs West
• 29th in scoring, 2nd in goals against, 11th in shots taken, 5th in shots against, 3rd in save percentage, 14th in penalty minutes, 15th in penalty minutes against 
• Combined Total: 31
• Goalie (J. Quick) ranked 2nd in GAA, 1st in shutouts, 5th in save percentage
• 1 top 20 in points (A. Kopitar), 0 top 40 in goals, 1 top 10 in assists (A. Kopitar), 2 top 25 in face-offs (A. Kopitar and J. Stoll), 1 top 10 in face-offs (A. Kopitar) 

   Playoffs

• 3rd in scoring, 1st in goals against
• +27 

2011 Boston Bruins 

• 3 seed
• 103 points
• 46 wins, 44 ROW, 11 OTL
• 2-6 Shootout Record
• +51 goal differential
• 246/195
• 6-3-1 in last ten
• 16.2 power play%, 82.6% penalty kill
• 38-18-8 vs East
• 5th in scoring, 2nd in goals against, 3rd in shots taken, 29th in shots against, 1st in save percentage, 8th in penalty minutes, 6th in penalty minutes against
• Combined Total: 7
• Goalie (T. Thomas) ranked 1st in GAA, 2nd in shutouts, 1st in save percentage
• 1 top 40 in points (M. Lucic-39th), 1 top 30 in goals (M-Lucic-28th), 1 top 20 in assists (D. Krejci- tied for 10th), 1 top 5 in face-offs (P. Bergeron- 5th) 

   Playoffs

• 5th in scoring, 1st in goals against
• +28 

2010 Chicago Blackhawks

• 2 seed
• 112 points
• 52 wins
• +62 goal differential
• 271/209
• 6-3-1 in last ten
• 17.7% power play, 85% penalty kill
• 41-17-6 vs West
• 3rd in scoring, tied for 5th in goals against, 1st in shots taken, 1st in shots against, tied for 23rd in save percentage, 25th in penalty minutes, 22nd in penalty minutes against
• Combined Total: 8
• Goalie (A. Niemi) ranked 4th in GAA, tied for 3rd in shutouts, tied for 19th in save percentage
• 1 top 20 in points (P. Kane-9th), 4 top 40 in points (J. Toews-35th, Duncan Keith-31st, Patrick Sharp-40th), 1 top 20 in goals (P-Kane- 19th), 2 top 20 in assists (P. Kane- 9th, D.Keith- 12th)

   Playoffs

• 3rd in scoring, 5th in goals against
• +16 

2009 Pittsburgh Penguins 

• 4 seed
• 99 points
• 45 wins 
• +25 goal differential 
• 258/233 
• 7-2-1 in last ten
• 17.2% power play, 82.7% penalty kill 
• 35-22-7 vs East
• 6th in scoring, 17th in goals against, 18th in shots taken, 18th in shots against, 14th in save percentage, 18th in penalty minutes, 15th in penalty minutes against 
• Combined Total: 23
• Goalie (M. Andre-Fleury) ranked 23rd in GAA, tied for 13th in shutouts, 21st in save percentage
• 2 in top 3 in points (E. Malkin- 1st, S. Crosby-3rd), 2 in top 20 in goals (E. Malkin- 14th, S. Crosby- 20th), 2 in top 2 in assists (E. Malkin- 1st, S. Crosby- 2nd) 

   Playoffs

• 2nd in scoring, 5th in goals against
• +15 

2008 Detroit Red Wings

• 1 seed
• 115 points, Best Record in NHL
• 54 wins
• +73 goal differential 
• 257/184 
• 7-2-1 in last ten
• 20.8% power play, 84.0% penalty kill
• 47-19-6 vs West
• 3rd in scoring, 1st in goals against, 1st in shots taken, 1st in shots against, 13th in save percentage, 30th in penalty minutes, 23rd in penalty minutes against 
• Combined Total: 4 
• Goalie (C. Osgood) ranked 1st in GAA, tied for 9th in shutouts, 16th in save percentage (D. Hasek) ranked 4th in GAA 
• 1 in top 10 in points (P. Datsyuk- 4th), 1 in top 10 in goals (H. Zetteberg- 5th), 2 in top 5 in assists (P. Datsyuk- 2nd, N. Lidstrom- 5th) 

   Playoffs

• 1st in scoring, 1st in goals against
• +31

2007 Anaheim Ducks

• 2 seed
• 110 points
• 48 wins
• +50 goal differential 
• 258/208
• 5-3-2 in last ten
• 22.3% power play, 85% penalty kill
• 42-18-12 vs West
• 8th in scoring, 7th in goals against, 7th in shots taken, 5th in shots against, 6th in save percentage, 1st in penalty minutes, 1st in penalty minutes against 
• Combined Total: 15
• Goalie (J.Sebastian-Giguere) 5th in GAA, tied for 7th in SV%, tied for 15th in shutouts
• 1 in top 20 points (T. Selanne- 11th), 1 in top 3 goals (T. Selanne- 3rd), 3 in top 40 assists (S. Niedermeyer- 19th, A. McDonald- 27th, T. Selanne- 39th) 

   Playoffs

• 4th in scoring, 3rd in goals against
• +13 

2006 Carolina Hurricanes

• 2 seed
• 112 points
• 52 wins
• +34
• 290/264
• 5-3-2 in last ten
• 17.9% power play, 81.8% penalty kill
• 45-20-7 vs East
• 3rd in scoring, tied for 19th in goals against, 6th in shots taken, 12th in shots against, tied for 15th in save percentage, 26th in penalty minutes, 13th in penalty minutes against
• Combined Total: 22
• Goalie (C. Ward)- 46th in GAA, 43rd in SV%, didn't even play most of regular season
• 1 in top 10 in points (E. Staal- 7th), 3 in top 40 in points (J. Williams- 35th, C. Stillman- 35th), 1 in top 10 in goals (E. Staal- 8th), 3 in top 40 in goals (J. Williams- 33rd, R. Brind'Amour- 33rd), 1 top 20 in assists (E. Staal- 16th) 

   Playoffs

• 5th in scoring, 3rd in goals against
• +13 

Current Odds

CHI 5/1- 1/20   5/1- 1/27   5-1- 2/3   5-1- 2/10   5-1- 3/3   11/2- 3/10   6/1- 3/17   5/1- 3/24   5/1- 3/31   6/1- 4/7
     Why They Will Win
          -best goal scoring in the league, combined total is just lower than 15, elite play-making and just enough goal tending/defense to get it done
     Why They Won't Win
          -shaky goal-tending and defense compared to last year, penalty kill lower than 80% 

ANA 5/1   5/1   5/1   5/1   5/2   13/2   8/1   10/1   7/1   7/1
     Why They Will Win 
          -great goal-scoring, goaltending/defense in top 10 and since they tend to blow teams out, that figure may be inflated a little bit, combined total is 11, they have play-making all across the board 

PIT 5/1   11/2   11/2   11/2   6/1   6/1   13/2   6/1   8/1   17/2
     Why They Will Win
          -combined total is 11, Crosby and Malkin are elite, Fleury is having a much better year this year, east is weak
     Why They Won't Win
          -no big weakness, they are much more solid across the board this year, the Bruins and Lighting could be stiff competition 

STL 6/1  5/1   5/1   5/1   5/1   9/2   4/1   4/1   4/1   9/2
     Why They Will Win
         -best combined total in the league, they have two good goalies, they can score, they have great defense
     Why They Won't Win
         -Halak is a tad overrated based on his low save percentage

BOS 8/1   8/1   8/1  8/1   8/1   7/1   6/1   9/2   7/2   13/4
     Why They Will Win
          -second best combined total in league, Rask is highly ranked in both categories, balanced goal-scoring, go four lines deep
     Why They Won't Win
          -Rask has been a little shaky at times

SJ 10/1   9/1   9/1   9/1   9/1   8/1   7/1   5/1   7/1   10/1
     Why They Will Win
          -Solid across the board, great talent, solid combined total
     Why They Won't Win
          -Niemi isn't quite good enough to put them over the top

LA 12/1   15/1   15/1   15/1   15/1   14/1   10/1   12/1   12/1   12/1
     Why They Will Win
          -Superb goal-tending, tremendous defense, just enough offensive talent
     Why They Won't Win
          -terrible offense at times, Quick hasn't been as great; it was Shrivens who really stepped up

TB 15/1   15/1   15/1   30/1   30/1   20/1   20/1   20/1   20/1   25/1
     Why They Will Win
          -Bishop is having a tremendous year in goal, the scoring is there, they will expect Stamkos to return, the East is weak
     Why They Won't Win
          -Not a great defense in front of Bishop, questions around health of Stamkos 

MON 20/1   25/1   25/1   35/1   30/1   25/1   20/1   20/1   20/1   25/1
     Why They Will Win
         -Price is great 
     Why They Won't Win
         -not enough offense 

NYR 20/1   20/1   20/1   22/1   25/1   23/1   25/1   25/1   20/1   20/1
     Why They Will Win
          -Lundqvist becomes elite again
      Why They Won't Win
          -not enough offense, not enough defense, Lundqvist hasn't been exceptional 

COL 25/1   20/1   20/1   20/1   18/1   14/1   14/1   15/1   15/1   10/1
     Why They Will Win
          -offense is excellent, Varlamov can get it done
     Why They Won't Win
          -not enough defense in front of Varlamov

DET 30/1   30/1   30/1   50/1   40/1   40/1   40/1   50/1   50/1   35/1

VAN 30/1   45/1   45/1   70/1   50/1   300/1   100/1   300/1   300/1   none

WSH 40/1   45/1   45/1   65/1   45/1   70/1   60/1   60/1   60/1   100/1

OTT 40/1   50/1   50/1   100/1   100/1   100/1   100/1   300/1   500/1   none

PHI 40/1   40/1   40/1   30/1   30/1   28/1   28/1   28/1   28/1   25/1

COL 40/1   40/1   40/1   30/1   40/1   60/1   50/1   100/1   60/1   60/1
     Why They Will Win
          -Bobrovsky regains form and defense catches up to very productive offense
     Why They Won't Win
          -Bobrovsky isn't the same guy this year, defense isn't there 

TOR 50/1   40/1   40/1   50/1   40/1   40/1   38/1   50/1   100/1   200/1

PHX 50/1   60/1   60/1   75/1   75/1   100/1   100/1   100/1   75/1   75/1

MIN 60/1   50/1   50/1   50/1   40/1   50/1   60/1   60/1   60/1   65/1

DAL 100/1   60/1   60/1   100/1   100/1   75/1   100/1   100/1   100/1   70/1

NYI 100/1   100/1   100/1   1,000/1   250/1   none   none   none   none

CAR 100/1   100/1   100/1   100/1   100/1   200/1   200/1   200/1   500/1   none

NJ 100/1   100/1   100/1   100/1   80/1   100/1   100/1   200/1   100/1   100/1

NSH 500/1   300/1   300/1   300/1   300/1   none   none   none   none

WPG 500/1   300/1   300/1   100/1   100/1   100/1   300/1   500/1   1,000/1   none

FLA 500/1   500/1   500/1   1,000/1   1000/1   none   none   none   none

BUF 5,000/1   5000/1   5000/1   5000/1    5000/1   none   none   none   none

EDM 5,000/1   5000/1   5000/1   5000/1    5000/1   none   none   none   none

CAL 5,000/1   5000/1   5000/1   5000/1    5000/1   none   none   none   none