Total Analysis
Teams that substantially over performed: decreased by 2.29 wins the year after (38)
Teams that substantially under performed: decreased by 2.28 wins the year after (39)
Teams that over performed by 0.9-1.4: decreased by 2.23 wins the year after (17)
Teams that under performed by 0.9-1.4: increased by 2.11 wins the year after (18)
Teams that over performed by 1.5-1.9: decreased by 2.93 wins the year after (14)
Teams that under performed by 1.5-1.9: increased by 1.57 wins the year after (7)
Teams that over performed by 2.0 or more: decreased by 1.29 wins the year after (7)
Teams that under performed by 2.0 or more: increased by 2.79 wins the year after (14)
Teams Expected to Improve in order of biggest differential
HOU ATL WAS DET CLE TB MIN OAK
Teams Expected to Improve in order of most likely-least likely
Teams that under performed improve next year with the help of a quality/upgrade at quarterback
Examples: SEA in 2012 and 2013, NO in 2013
Candidates for 2014 improvement with this logic in order of most likely: ATL, DET, TB, all the other teams depend on who drafts quarterbacks
Teams Expected to Regress in order of biggest differential
NYJ IND NE NYG DEN BAL JAC
Teass that over perform regress next year because they have a mediocre quarterback
Examples: HOU in 2013, MIN in 2013
Candidates for 2014 regression with this logic in order of most likely: NYJ, BAL, NYG, NE, DEN, JAC depends on who they draft
2013
SEA- 12.8 (over 0.2
DEN- 11.7 (over 1.3- QB: Peyton Manning
CAR- 11.7 (over 0.3
NO- 10.8 (over 0.2
NE- 10.5 (over 1.5 QB: Tom Brady
SF- 11.5 (over 0.5
KC- 11.1 (under 0.1
PHI- 9.4 (over 0.6
CIN- 11.1 (over 0.4
ARI- 9.5 (over 0.5
CHI- 7.3 (over 0.7
SD- 9.2 (over 0.2
IND- 9.4 (over 1.6 QB: Andrew Luck
STL- 7.6 (under 0.6
PIT- 8.2 (under 0.2
DET- 8.5 (under 1.5 QB: Matthew Stafford
DAL- 8.2 (under 0.2
BUF- 6.7 (under 0.7
TB- 5.3 (under 1.3 QB: Mike Glennon
TEN- 7.5 (under 0.5
GB- 7.8 (over 0.2
BAL- 7.1 (over 0.9 QB: Joe Flacco
MIA- 7.5 (over 0.5
NYJ- 5.4 (over 2.6 QB: Geno Smith
ATL- 5.9 (under 1.9 QB: Matt Ryan
MIN- 6.1 (under 1.1 QB: Christian Ponder
NYG- 5.6 (over 1.4 QB: Eli Manning
CLE- 5.5 (under 1.5 QB:
WAS- 4.8 (under 1.8 QB: Robert Griffin
HOU- 4.2 (under 2.2 QB:
OAK- 4.9 (under 0.9 QB:
JAC- 3.1 (over 0.9 QB:
2012
SEA- 12.5 (under 1.5 2013: 13-3 (+2 wins
DEN- 12.5 (over 0.5
NE- 12.7 (under 0.7
SF- 11.4 (under 0.4
GB- 10.5 (over 0.5
CHI- 10.8 (under 0.8
NYG- 10.2 (under 1.2
BAL- 9.4 (over 0.6
WAS- 9.2 (over 0.8
ATL- 11.2 (over 1.8 2013: 4-12 (-9 wins
HOU- 10.2 (over 1.8 2013: 2-14 (-10 wins
CIN- 9.9 (over 0.1
CAR- 7.8 (under 0.8
MIN- 8.8 (over 1.2 2013: 5-10-1 (-5 wins
STL- 6.6 (over 0.4
DET- 6.4 (under 2.4 2013: 7-9 (+3 wins
DAL- 7.4 (over 0.6
PIT- 8.7 (under 0.7
NO- 8.2 (under 1.2 2013: 11-5 (+4 wins
TB- 7.9 (under 0.9
MIA- 7.1 (over 0.1
SD- 8.0 (under 1.0 2013: 9-7 (+2 wins
BUF- 5.7 (over 0.3
CLE- 6.1 (under 1.1 2013: 4-12 (-1 wins
IND- 7.2 (over 3.8 2013: 11-5 (= wins
ARI- 4.8 (over 0.2
NYJ- 5.3 (over 0.7
PHI- 3.9 (over 0.1
OAK- 4.1 (under 0.1
TEN- 4.6 (over 1.4 2013: 7-9 (+1 wins
JAC- 3.3 (under 1.3 2013: 4-12 (+2 wins
KC- 2.5 (under 0.5
Teams that substantially over performed: decreased by 4.6 wins the year after (5)
Teams that substantially under performed: increased by 2.0 wins the year after (6)
Teams that over performed by 0.9-1.4: decreased by 2.0 wins the year after (2)
Teams that under performed by 0.9-1.4: increased by 1.75 wins the year after (4)
Teams that over performed by 1.5-1.9: decreased by 9.5 wins the year after (2)
Teams that under performed by 1.5-1.9: increased by 2.0 wins the year after (1)
Teams that over performed by 2 or more: stayed the same the year after (1)
Teams that under performed by 2 or more: increased by 3.0 wins the year after (1)
Case Studies
SEA- Under Achieved in 2012, Improved in 2013
QB in 2012: R. Wilson
QB in 2013: R. Wilson
Improvement: Yes
ATL- Over Achieved in 2012, Regressed in 2013
QB in 2012: M. Ryan
QB in 2013: M. Ryan
Regression: Yes, injuries, poor offensive line and poor defense were causes
HOU- Over Achieved in 2012, Regressed in 2013
QB in 2012: M. Schaub
QB in 2013: M. Schaub, C. Keenum
Regression: Yes
MIN- Over Achieved in 2012, Regressed in 2013
QB in 2012: C. Ponder
QB in 2013: C. Ponder, M. Cassel
Regression: Yes
DET- Under Achieved in 2012, Improved in 2013
QB in 2012: M. Stafford
QB in 2013: M. Stafford
Improvement: Yes, but not enough
NO- Under Achieved in 2012, Improved in 2013
QB in 2012: D. Brees
QB in 2013: D. Brees
Improvement: Yes
SD- Under Achieved in 2012, Improved in 2013
QB in 2012: P. Rivers
QB in 2013: P. Rivers
Improvement: Yes, new coaching hire helped as well
CLE- Under Achieved in 2012, Regressed in 2013
QB in 2012: B. Weeden
QB in 2013: B. Weeden, J. Campbell
Improvement: No, quarterback play wasn't strong enough
IND- Over Achieved in 2012, Stayed the same in 2013
QB in 2012: A. Luck
QB in 2013: A. Luck
Regression: No, stayed the same thanks to Luck
TEN- Over Achieved in 2012, Improved Slightly in 2013
QB in 2012: J. Locker, M. Hasselbeck
QB in 2013: J. Locker, R. Fitzpatrick
Regression: No, slight improvement, a little bit better quarterback play, but not good enough
JAC- Under Achieved in 2012, Improved Slightly in 2013
QB in 2012: B. Gabbert, C. Henne
QB in 2013: C. Henne, B. Gabbert
Improvement: Slight improvement, a little bit better quarterback play, weaker schedule
2011
GB- 12.2 (over 2.8 2012: 11-5 (-4 wins
NO- 12.4 (over 0.6
NE- 11.9 (over 1.1 2012: 12-4 (-1 wins
PIT- 11.1 (over 0.9 2012: 8-8 (-4 wins
HOU- 10.9 (under 0.9 2012: 12-4 (+2 wins
SF- 12.3 (over 0.7
BAL- 11.2 (over 0.8
ATL- 9.4 (over 0.6
PHI- 9.8 (under 1.8 2012: 4-12 (-4 wins
NYJ- 8.4 (under 0.4
DET- 10.1 (under 0.1
NYG- 7.8 (over 1.2 2012: 9-7 (= wins
TEN- 8.2 (over 0.8
DAL- 8.6 (under 0.6
CHI- 8.3 (under 0.3
SD- 8.7 (under 0.7
CIN- 8.6 (over 0.4
MIA- 8.5 (under 2.5 2012: 7-9 (+1 wins
SEA- 8.2 (under 1.2 2012: 11-5 (+4 wins
CAR- 7.4 (under 1.4 2012: 7-9 (+1 was
WAS- 5.7 (under 0.7
OAK- 6.1 (over 1.9 2012: 4-12 (-4 wins
BUF- 6.4 (under 0.4
DEN- 5.8 (over 2.2 2012: 13-3 (+5 wins- addition of Peyton Manning
CLE- 5.0 (under 1.0 2012: 5-11 (+1 wins
KC- 4.1 (over 2.9 2012: 2-14 (-5 wins
JAC- 5.3 (under 0.3
ARI- 6.9 (over 1.1 2012: 5-11 (-3 wins
MIN- 5.3 (under 2.3 2012: 10-6 (+7 wins
TB- 3.2 (over 0.8
IND- 3.2 (under 1.2 2012: 11-5 (+9 wins
STL- 2.3 (under 0.3
Teams that substantially over performed: decreased by 2.0 wins the year after (8)
Teams that substantially under performed: increased by 2.6 wins the year after (8)
Teams that over performed by 0.9-1.4: decreased by 2.0 wins the year after (4)
Teams that under performed by 0.9-1.4: increased by 3.4 wins the year after (5)
Teams that over performed by 1.5-1.9: decreased by 4.0 wins the year after (1)
Teams that under performed by 1.5-1.9: decreased by 4.0 wins the year after (1)
Teams that over performed by 2 or more: decreased by 1.33 wins the year after (3)
Teams that under performed by 2 or more: increased by 4.0 wins the year after (2)
Case Studies
GB- Over Achieved in 2011, regressed in 2012
2011: A. Rodgers
2012: A. Rodgers
Regression: Yes, injuries and other deficiencies caught up with them
NE- Over achieved in 2011, regressed slightly in 2012
2011: T. Brady
2012: T. Brady
Regression: Yes, but only slight
PIT- Over achieved in 2011, regressed slightly in 2012
2011: B. Roethlisberger
2012: B. Roethlisberger
Regression: Yes, injuries to Roethlisberger and others
HOU- Under achieved in 2011, improved in 2012
2011: M. Schaub
2012: M. Schaub
Improvement: Yes
PHI- Under achieved in 2011, regressed in 2012
2011: M. Vick, V. Young
2012: M. Vick, N. Foles
Improvement: No, injuries to Vick, inexperience from Foles, other deficiencies
NYG- Over achieved in 2011, stayed the same in 2012
2011: E. Manning
2012: E. Manning
Improvement: Stayed the same
MIA- Under achieved in 2011, improved slightly in 2012
2011: M. Moore, C. Henne
2012: R. Tannehill
Improvement: Yes, slightly better quarterback play, a little bit more depth all around
SEA- Under achieved in 2011, improved in 2012
2011: T. Jackson
2012: R. Wilson
Improvement: Yes, better quarterback play
CAR- Under achieved in 2011, improved slightly in 2012
2011: C. Newton
2012: C. Newton
Improvement: Yes, slightly, quarterback play wasn't a huge factor but losing in a bunch of close games was
DEN- Over achieved in 2011, improved in 2012
2011: T. Tebow
2012: P. Manning
Regression: No, massive upgrade at quarterback
CLE- Under achieved in 2011, improved slightly in 2012
2011: C. McCoy
2012: B. Weeden
Improvement: Yes, slightly because there wasn't a big upgrade at quarterback
KC- Over achieved in 2011, regressed in 2012
2011: M. Cassel, T. Palko, K. Orton
2012: M. Cassel, B. Quinn
Regression: Yes, terrible quarterback play
ARI- Over achieved in 2011, regressed in 2012
2011: K. Kolb, J. Skelton
2012: K. Kolb, J. Skelton, R. Lindley
Regression: Yes, terrible quarterback play
MIN- Under achieved in 2011, improved in 2012
2011: C. Ponder, D.McNabb
2012: C. Ponder
Improvement: Yes, quarterback play was more consistent
IND- Under achieved in 2011, improved in 2012
2011: K. Collins, D. Orlovsky, C. Painter
2012: A. Luck
Improvement: Yes, much better quarterback play
2010
NE- 12.6 (over 1.4 2011: 13-3, -1 wins
T. Brady- T. Brady
GB- 12.1 (under 2.1 2011: 15-1, +5 wins
A. Rodgers- A. Rodgers
BAL- 10.6 (under 1.4 2011: 12-4, +2 wins
J. Flacco- J. Flacco
NYJ- 9.8 (over 1.2 2011: 8-8, -3 wins
M. Sanchez- M. Sanchez
ATL- 11.4 (over 1.6 2011: 10-6, -3 wins
M. Ryan- M. Ryan
SD- 11.0 (under 2.0 2011: 8-8, -1 wins
P. Rivers- P. Rivers
NO- 9.3 (over 1.7 2011: 13-3, +2 wins
D. Brees- D. Brees
TEN- 8.5 (under 2.5 2011: 9-7, +3 wins
K. Collins/V. Young- M. Hasselbeck/J.Locker
TB- 8.7 (over 1.3 2011: 4-12, -6 wins
J. Freeman- J. Freeman
HOU- 7.1 (under 1.1 2011: 10-6, +4 wins
M. Schaub- M. Schaub
CHI- 9.5 (over 1.5 2011: 8-8, -3 wins
J. Cutler- J. Cutler
KC- 9.1 (over 0.9 2011: 7-9, -3 wins
M. Cassel- M. Cassel/T.Palko/K.Orton
DET- 7.8 (under 1.8 wins 2011: 10-6, +4 wins
M. Stafford- M. Stafford
CIN- 6.0 (under 2.0 wins 2011: 9-7, +5 wins
C. Palmer- A. Dalton
OAK- 9.0 (under 1.0 wins 2011: 8-8, = wins
J. Campbell/B. Gradkowski- C. Palmer/J. Campbell
JAC- 6.3 (over 1.7 wins 2011: 5-11, -3 wins
D. Garrard- B. Gabbert
DAL- 7.0 (under 1.0 wins 2011: 8-8, +2 wins
J. Kitna/T. Romo- T. Romo
DEN- 4.9 (under 0.9 wins 2011: 8-8, +4 wins
K. Orton- T. Tebow/K.Orton
SEA- 5.4 (over 1.6 wins 2011: 7-9, = wins
M.Hasslbeck- T. Jackson
Teams that substantially over performed: decreased by 2.22 wins the year after (9)
Teams that substantially under performed: increased by 2.8 wins the year after (10)
Teams that over performed by 0.9-1.4: decreased by 3.5 wins the year after (4)
Teams that under performed by 0.9-1.4: increased by 2.4 wins the year after (5)
Teams that over performed by 1.5-1.9: decreased by 1.4 wins the year after (5)
Teams that under performed by 1.5-1.9: increased by 4.0 wins the year after (1)
Teams that over performed by 2.0 or more: no data
Teams that under performed by 2.0 or more: increased by 3.0 wins the year after (4)
2009
BAL- 11.6 (under 2.6 2010: 10-6, +1 wins
GB- 12.0 (under 1.0 2010: 10-6, -1 wins
NE- 11.7 (under 1.7 2010: 14-2, +4 wins
NO- 11.8 (over 1.2 2010: 11-5, -2 wins
IND- 10.9 (over 3.1 2010: 10-6, -4 wins
NYJ- 11.4 (under 2.4 2010: 11-5, +2 wins
SD- 11.3 (over 1.7 2010: 9-7, -4 wins
CIN- 8.4 (over 1.6 2010: 4-12, -6 wins
SF- 9.5 (under 1.5 2010: 6-10, -2 wins
TEN- 6.7 (over 1.3 2010: 6-10, -2 wins
WAS- 5.8 (under 1.8 2010: 6-10, +2 wins
JAC- 5.5 (over 1.5 2010: 8-8, +1 wins
OAK- 2.9 (over 2.1 2010: 8-8, +3 wins
Teams that substantially over performed: decreased by 2.0 wins the year after (7)
Teams that substantially under performed: increased by 1.0 wins the year after (6)
Teams that over performed by 0.9-1.4: decreased by 2.0 wins the year after (2)
Teams that under performed by 0.9-1.4: increased by 1.0 wins the year after (1)
Teams that over performed by 1.5-1.9: decreased by 3.0 wins the year after (3)
Teams that under performed by 1.5-1.9: increased by 1.33 wins the year after (3)
Teams that over performed by 2.0 or more: decreased by 0.5 wins the year after (2)
Teams that under performed by 2.0 or more: increased by 1.5 wins the year after (2)
2008
PHI- 11.4 (under 2.4 2009: 11-5, +2 wins
BAL- 12.0 (under 1.0 2009: 9-7, -2 wins
TEN- 12.1 (over 0.9 2009: 8-8, -5 wins
CAR- 10.2 (over 1.8 2009: 8-8, -4 wins
SD- 10.3 (under 2.3 2009: 13-3, +5 wins
IND- 10.2 (over 1.8 2009: 14-2, +2 wins
GB- 9.0 (under 3.0 2009: 11-5, +5 wins
WAS- 7.0 (over 1.0 2009: 4-12, -4 wins
NO- 9.7 (under 1.7 2009: 13-3, +5 wins
MIA- 8.8 (over 2.2 2009: 7-9, -4 wins
ATL- 9.8 (over 1.2 2009: 9-7, -2 wins
DAL- 7.9 (over 1.1 2009: 11-5, +2 wins
JAC- 6.1 (under 1.1 2009: 7-9, +2 wins
ARI- 8.0 (over 1.0 2009: 10-6, +1 win
DEN- 6.1 (over 1.9 2009: 8-8, = wins
SEA- 5.3 (under 1.3 2009: 5-11, +1 win
KC- 4.2 (under 2.2 2009: 4-12, +2 wins
DET- 2.5 (under 2.5 2009: 2-14, +2 wins
Teams that substantially over performed: decreased by 1.55 wins the year after (9)
Teams that substantially under performed: increased by 2.44 wins the year after (9)
Teams that over performed 0.9-1.4: decreased by 1.6 wins the year after (5)
Teams that under performed 0.9-1.4: increased by 0.33 wins the year after (3)
Teams that over performed 1.5-1.9: decreased by 0.66 wins the year after (3)
Teams that under performed 1.5-1.9: increased by 5.0 wins the year after (1)
Teams that over performed 2.0 or more: decreased by 4.0 wins the year after (1)
Teams that under performed 2.0 or more: increased by 3.2 wins the year after (5)
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