DVOA Analysis

2013 DVOA Observations
Seattle- 13-3, 1st in Total DVOA, 7th-1st-5th 
1st in Weighted DVOA, 17th hardest schedule, 12.8 pyth wins, 13.0 est wins, 19th in variance 

Denver- 13-3, 2nd in Total DVOA, 1st-15th-21st
2nd in Weighted DVOA, 31st hardest schedule, 11.7 pyth wins, 14.1 est wins, 8th in variance  

2012 DVOA Observations 

Baltimore- 10-6, 8th in Total DVOA, 13th-19th-1st in Offense, Defense, ST
11th in Weighted DVOA, 16th hardest schedule, 9.4 pyth wins, 9.2 est wins, 24th in variance 

San Francisco- 11-4-1, 4th in Total DVOA, 5th-3rd, 20th
5th in Weighted DVOA, 3rd hardest schedule, 11.4 pyth wins, 12.5 est wins, 31st in variance 

New England- 12-4, 3rd in Total DVOA, 1st-15th-4th
3rd in Weighted DVOA, 21st hardest schedule, 12.7 pyth wins, 13.4 est wins, 11th in variance

Atlanta- 13-3, 10th in Total DVOA, 12th-12th- 16th
13th in Weighted DVOA, 27th hardest schedule, 11.2 pyth wins, 9.1 est wins, 17th in variance
     Analysis: Atlanta had all the makings of a paper tiger. They outplayed their pythagorean record by 2 wins and were not even that stout in any category. They also had one of the easiest schedules. It isn't surprising went you go back to see that with a couple major injuries, the Falcons were a prime contender to dramatically regress in 2013.

Denver- 13-3, 2nd in Total DVOA, 2nd-5th-13th
2nd in Weighted DVOA, 31st hardest schedule, 12.5 pyth wins, 14.7 est wins, 4th in variance

Houston- 12-4, 11th in Total DVOA, 16th-4th-32nd
19th in Weighted DVOA, 26th hardest schedule, 10.2 pyth wins, 8.3 est wins, 20th in variance
     Analysis: Houston was very similar to Atlanta. They were very overrated to start the year, they had one of the easiest schedules, and they regressed towards the end of the year. They completely outplayed their record as well.

Green Bay- 11-5, 5th in Total DVOA, 3rd-8th-18th
4th in Weighted DVOA, 9th hardest schedule, 10.5 pyth wins, 11.8 est wins, 27th in variance

Seattle- 11-5, 1st in Total DVOA, 4th-2nd-3rd
1st in Weighted DVOA, 4th hardest schedule, 12.5 pyth wins, 13 est wins, 18th in variance
     Analysis: Their 4th hardest schedule, and underperformance in wins explains how they improved by 2 wins in 2013

Kansas City- 2-14, 32nd in Total DVOA, 31st, 30th, 22nd
32nd in Weighted DVOA, 18th hardest schedule, 2.5 pyth wins, 2.4 est wins, 16th in variance
     Analysis: KC had a minus 24 turnover rating, and then in 2013 they had a +18

2011 DVOA Observations 

New York- 9-7, 12th in Total DVOA, 7th, 19th, 15th
14th in Weighted DVOA, 4th hardest schedule, 7.8 pyth wins, 9.1 est wins, 20th in variance

New England- 13-3, 3rd in Total DVOA, 3rd, 30th, 5th
3rd in Weighted DVOA, 23rd hardest schedule, 11.9 pyth wins, 12.2 est wins, 6th in variance

San Francisco- 13-3, 6th in Total DVOA, 18th, 3rd, 2nd
8th in Weighted DVOA, 32nd hardest schedule, 12.3 pyth wins, 10.8 est wins, 4th in variance

Baltimore- 12-4, 7th in Total DVOA, 13th, 1st, 30th
10th in Weighted DVOA, 24th hardest schedule, 11.2 pyth wins, 10.6 est wins, 31st in variance

2010 DVOA Observations

Green Bay- 10-6, 4th in Total DVOA, 7th, 2nd, 26th
4th in Weighted DVOA, 15th hardest schedule, 12.1 pyth wins, 10.9 est wins, 15th in variance

Pittsburgh- 12-4, 2nd in Total DVOA, 5th, 1st, 16th
2nd in Weighted DVOA, 9th hardest schedule, 12.1 pyth wins, 12.1 est wins, 12th in variance

Chicago- 11-5, 14th in Total DVOA, 28th, 4th, 1st
10th in Weighted DVOA, 18th hardest schedule, 9.5 pyth wins, 8.3 est wins, 30th in variance
     Analysis: Chicago was simply lucky to get a first round bye and then face a 7-9 Seahawks team; their pyth win was 9.5 and est wins was 8.3, they over performed

New York- 11-5, 6th in Total DVOA, 16th, 5th, 5th
7th in Weighted DVOA, 5th hardest schedule, 9.8 pyth, 10.1 est wins, 28th in variance
     Analysis: Their ranking in variance was on full display against the Patriots that year; they were at their worst in a 45-3 Monday Night loss in December, but then at their best in a 28-21 win at Gillette a month later in the divisional round

New England- 14-2, 1st in Total DVOA, 1st, 21st, 8th
1st in Weighted DVOA, 7th hardest schedule, 12.6 pyth, 14.6 est wins, 17th in variance

2009 DVOA Observations

New Orleans- 13-3, 6th in Total DVOA, 2nd, 17th, 28th
13th in Weighted DVOA, 23rd hardest schedule, 11.8 pyth, 11.2 est wins, 17th in variance 

Indianapolis- 14-2, 8th in Total DVOA, 6th, 16th, 19th
14th in Weighted DVOA, 17th hardest schedule, 10.9 pyth, 11.1 est wins, 15th in variance

2008 DVOA Observations 

Pittsburgh- 12-4, 4th in Total DVOA, 21st, 1st, 23rd 
2nd in Weighted DVOA, 3rd hardest schedule, 11.8 pyth wins, 11.3 est wins, 8th in variance

Arizona- 9-7, 21st in Total DVOA, 15th, 21st, 28th
22nd in Weighted DVOA, 27th hardest schedule, 8.0 pyth wins, 7.2 est wins, 29th in variance