2011
AFC
NE: 2010: 14-2 BAL: 2010: 12-4 HOU: 2010: 6-10 DEN: 2010: 4-12 PIT:2010: 12-4 CIN: 2010: 4-12
NFC
GB: 2010: 10-6 SF:2010: 6-10 NO 2010: 11-5 NYG 2010: 10-6 ATL 2010: 13-3 DET 2010: 6-10
2010
AFC
NE 2009: 10-6 PIT 2009: 9-7 IND 2009: 14-2 KC 2009: 4-12 BAL 2009: 9-7 NYJ 2009: 9-7
NFC
ATL 2009: 9-7 CHI 2009: 7-9 PHI 2009: 11-5 SEA 2009: 5-11 NO 2009: 13-3 GB 2009: 11-5
2009
AFC
IND 2008: 12-4 SD 2008: 8-8 NE 2008: 11-5 CIN 2008: 4-11-1 NYJ 2008: 9-7 BAL 2008: 11-5
NFC
NO 2008: 8-8 MIN 2008: 10-6 DAL 2008: 9-7 ARZ 2008: 9-7 GB 2008: 6-10 PHI 2008: 9-6-1
2008
AFC
TEN 2007: 10-6 PIT 2007: 10-6 MIA 2007: 1-15 SD 2007: 11-5 IND 2007: 13-3 BAL 2007: 5-11
NFC
NYG 2007: 10-6 CAR 2007: 7-9 MIN 2007: 8-8 ARZ 2007: 8-8 ATL 2007: 4-12 PHI 2007: 8-8
2007
AFC
NE 2006: 12-4 IND 2006: 12-4 SD 2006: 14-2 PIT 2006: 8-8 JAC 2006: 8-8 TEN 2006: 8-8
NFC
DAL 2006: 9-7 GB 2006: 8-8 SEA 2006: 9-7 TB 2006: 4-12 NYG 2006: 8-8 WSH 2006: 5-11
If we look at this, 27 of the 40 division winners did not win the division the year prior, meaning that a little over 5 of the 8 division winners did not win the division the year before. Take a look at the the division winners last year, New England, Baltimore, Houston, Denver, New York Giants, Green Bay, New Orleans and San Francisco. At least four of them will not repeat as division champions.
Another revealing statistic is how of the 27 division winners that did not win the division the year before, 15 of those teams were 8-8 or worse the year before.
Now, it isn't all about division winners. Many teams come out of nowhere to secure a wild card spot like last year's Detroit Lions, who rebounded from a 6-10 season to make the playoffs for the first time in a little over a decade. 8 of the 16 wild card teams from the past five years were 8-8 or worse the year before.
That is your quick summary of how many teams rebound from pedestrian seasons to make the playoffs. Now let's examine how these teams turned it around and what their tendencies were.
2011
Houston Texans
Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals
San Francisco 49ers
Detroit Lions
A common trend you will notice is the change of the head coach and/or the quarterback. The Denver Broncos fired Josh McDaniels and brought in John Fox while the 49ers cut ties with Mike Singletary and brought in Jim Harbaugh. As for the quarterback changes, the Broncos experienced Tebow mania while the Bengals enjoyed success behind rookie Andy Dalton.
The next trend is the dramatic change in the production of each teams defense. In 2010, Houston and Denver were 30th and 32nd respectively in total defense while the 49ers, Bengals and Lions were all middle of the pack in defense. Then we move to 2011, and the Texans and 49ers all of a sudden have top five defenses while the Bengals came in as the 7th best defense in 2011. The Broncos were only ranked 20th, but given the improvement from 32nd to 20th, it is no surprise why it was just enough to get them into the playoffs. The Lions were the only team who went down in total defense, but it is simply because Matthew Stafford burst onto the scene in his first full season with adequate health.
The last thing you will notice is that each team's point differential in 2010 with the exception of the Broncos did not tell the whole story of their seasons. The Lions had a mere -7 point differential, only 30 points different than the 10-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Very similar situations in San Francisco, Houston and Cincinnati, where respective point differentials of -41, -37 and -73 were not indicative of their 6-10 and 4-12 records. If you have competitive, under .500 teams one season and the next season, they receive a weaker schedule due to their pedestrian performance the season prior, the team will beat up on weaker teams and win upwards of 10 or 11 games.
Now that we understand that the basic principles of turning your season around in the NFL is switching out the head coach, quarterback or both along with improving the defense dramatically, which will allow for the bad luck teams had in close games the previous season to all of a sudden turn around with a win improvement around 6. Does this method fit the pattern with teams from previous season?
2010
Kansas City Chiefs- It's clear, the defense went from 30th to 14th. Combine that with a weak schedule that comes from coming in last place the year before and you have a +6 win improvement.
Chicago Bears- A -48 point differential, a much more inspired season from Jay Cutler with less turnovers along with a defense that went from middle of the pack to the top 10 were the reasons for a division title and NFC Championship appearance.
Seattle Seahawks- Besides the coaching change with Pete Carroll at the helm, there really isn't anything you can put your finger on besides benefitting from a weak schedule and extremely weak division (they won the division at 7-9). The 2010 Seahawks were one of the flukiest teams in NFL history, as exemplified by their upset over the much more talented New Orleans Saints in one of the more memorable NFL playoff games in recent memory.
2009
Cincinnati Bengals- The Bengals had a pretty good defense during a poor 4-11-1 campaign, but the following season, they were fourth in total defense and with an elite defense like that going up against weaker competition due to a weak schedule, the Bengals made the playoffs behind a bounce-back season from Carson Palmer, only to bow right out to the New York Jets.
New Orleans Saints- In 2008, the New Orleans Saints were 8-8, yet had the most prolific offense in the league by a good amount while outscoring their opponents by a total of 78 points. In 2009, the defense wasn't better in terms of yards, but boy did they force turnovers. The offense was terrific as usual and a Super Bowl victory was the result.
Green Bay Packers- The Packers went from being a fair defense to the 2nd best in terms of yards against in the NFL. Combine that with the fact that the year before, they had a point differential that was positive, +39, despite their 6-10 record, which was better than their division foes, the Chicago Bears, who were 9-7. The Packers were a bit unlucky and young in terms of closing out games in 2008, but it is clear to see how they made that jump to the playoffs the following season.
I would go on in depth with some of the other teams from 2008 and 2007, but I can just summarize and say teams like the 2008 Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens both had coaching and quarterback changes combined with weaker schedules and improved defense. The 2008 Miami Dolphins went from 1-15 to 11-5 by improving the defense and minimizing turnovers, which did the trick against the lesser teams in the AFC. You can tell they had a lucky season because not only was Tom Brady out for the year, paving the way for the Dolphins to overtake the Patriots, but the Dolphins were beaten with ease by the Baltimore Ravens, one of the few very good opponents the Dolphins played that year.
So what does this all mean for this upcoming season? If we examine which teams went through coaching changes and quarterback moves, which teams look poised to improve on defense and which teams had a respectable plus/minus in 2011 that could be indicative of an immediate turnaround, then we have an idea of what teams could bounce back in 2012. Here are the teams that went are expected to have different quarterbacks in 2012.
Washington Redskins- Robert Griffin III
Seattle Seahawks- Matt Flynn
Miami Dolphins- David Garrard/Ryan Tannehill
Cleveland Browns- Brandon Weeden
Indianapolis Colts- Andrew Luck
Denver Broncos- Peyton Manning
Here are the teams that will have new head coaches in 2012.
Indianapolis Colts- Chuck Pagano
Jacksonville Jaguars- Mike Mularkey
Kansas City Chiefs- Romeo Crenel
Miami Dolphins- Joe Philbin
Oakland Raiders- Dennis Allen
St. Louis Rams- Jeff Fisher
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Greg Schiano
Here are the teams that will have both, new quarterbacks and new head coaches.
Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts
Non playoff teams/under .500 teams that should benefit from a weak schedule.
Buffalo Bills- 30th in Strength of Schedule
Tennessee Titans- 28th in Strength of Schedule
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 5 of 16 games against quality opponents (9-7 or better in 2011)
Kansas City Chiefs- 5 o 16 games against quality opponents
Teams that had deceptive plus/minus's in 2011.
Philadelphia Eagles- 8-8, +69 rating in 2011 (New York Giants, 9-7, Super Bowl champions, had -6)
Chicago Bears- 8-8, +12 rating in 2011 (deceptive given the amount of injuries to offense)
Dallas Cowboys- 8-8, +22 rating in 2011 (lost a boat load of close games in 2011)
Carolina Panthers- 6-10, -23 rating in 2011 (similar to the 2008 Packers, if defense can improve, could make playoffs)
Washington Redskins- 5-11, -79 rating in 2011 (only team to beat the Giants twice in 2011)
Miami Dolphins- 6-10, +16 rating in 2011 (defense was very good, lost a lot of close games)
Buffalo Bills- 6-10, -62 rating in 2011 (deceptive given injury to Fred Jackson)
Cleveland Browns- 4-12, -89 rating in 2011 (deceptive given how bad offense was)
Jacksonville Jaguars- 5-11, -86 rating in 2011 (deceptive given how bad offense was)
San Diego Chargers- 8-8, +29 rating in 2011 (lost a lot of close games in 2011)
Lastly, here are some teams that either have a very good defense in place or already or might break out and become a great defense in 2012.
Kansas City Chiefs- 11th in total defense in 2011 (return Eric Barry from injury, shut down undefeated Packers and did good job at times against quality teams like Patriots and Steelers)
Carolina Panthers- 28th in total defense in 2011 (return Jon Beason from injury, defense is another year more experienced)
Buffalo Bills- 26th in total defense in 2011 (signed Mario Williams and Mark Anderson in offseason to improve pass rush)
Miami Dolphins- 15th in total defense in 2011 (did a very good job against many quality opponents including the Patriots)
Washington Redskins- 13th in total defense in 2011 (shut down many a good offense in 2011, defense is one year more experienced with guys like Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan)
Dallas Cowboys- 14th in total defense in 2011 (did great job at times, inconsistent other times, signed Brandon Carr to improve secondary)
In conclusion, here are my five teams that I think are poised to go from not making the playoffs in 2011 to potentially having a great chance to make the playoffs and make a run at the Super Bowl title.
Honorable Mentions: Miami Dolphins and Washington Redskins
5 Buffalo Bills
I love the signings of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to improve the defense. Combine that with the fact that Fred Jackson should be healthy, and remember that with Jackson, the Bills were 5-3 and owning the last wild card spot. If Ryan Fitzpatrick can limit his turnovers, the Bills have improved enough on defense, on paper, that they should take advantage of a relatively weak schedule to be in position to make the playoffs. 4 Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles had one of the most up and down seasons in recent memory and were surely one of the most overhyped teams in NFL history. That being said, the defense was 8th in the NFL and all locker room issues aside, there is enough talent on this team to win a Super Bowl. However, it will come down to Michael Vick not turning the ball over at a frequent rate like he did last year and the defense, particularly Nmadi Asomugha, must step up and become an elite, top 5 defense if the Eagles want to live up to the hype. 3 Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys blew so many close games last year. If you think about it, one or two of those close losses that could've been wins was the difference between Dallas missing the playoffs. This year, the Cowboys are potent enough offensively to be a playoff team. It will come down to the defense to be consistent enough for the Cowboys to win 10 or 11 games and emerge from the toughest division in football arguably to reach the playoffs. 2 Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs were 7-9 last year, but all things considered, it was a very good season. Their best offensive player, Jamaal Charles, and their best defensive player, Eric Berry, both were out for the year two weeks into the season. Matt Cassel was done for the year by November and in came one of the poorest quarterbacks in recent memory, Tyler Palko. Yet, the Chiefs had many bright spots last year including upsetting the then undefeated Packers. This team will have an elite defense in 2012. It is probably my boldest prediction of the year, but if you think back to before last year, the 49ers weren't hyped to be the elite defense they were last year. They were in a similar position as the Chiefs with a new head coach coming in to reenergize the capable Chiefs. Kansas City will be very much in the playoff and Super Bowl hunt if any of you can believe it this year. 1 Chicago Bears
The Bears were very similar to the Chiefs in the sense that they were riddled with injuries. The Bears improved on offense this offseason by adding Brandon Marshall, which now gives them a very good offense to go with their above average defense. This team plays in an extremely tough division but keep in mind, this team was in the playoffs before Jay Cutler went down for the season. The Bears were just starting to click halfway through last year before the tough breaks. This year, the Bears will take the NFC by storm, winning the division title over the Green Bay Packers.
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